VAR Model Analysis of Blob Gas Base Fee & Priority Fee in Ethereum

This article presents a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model analysis exploring the interaction between Ethereum’s blob gas base fee and blob gas priority fee. The results show strong persistence in base fees and nuanced interplay between fee types, with residual correlations confirming model reliability. It also examines the impact of EIP-4844 on rollup costs and gas usage, revealing a noticeable drop in fees—especially for optimistic rollups—after the protocol upgrade.