BtcFlow: Modeling Bitcoin’s Mempool Dynamics to Predict Optimal Feerates

BtcFlow is a Bitcoin fee estimation model that treats the blockchain mempool as a flow system — analyzing how transactions enter, stay, and exit it over time. By simulating transaction inflow, mempool state, and outflow under different feerates, it determines the minimum fee rate needed to clear pending transactions within a given interval. While its design improves accuracy in predicting confirmation times, BtcFlow faces limitations due to assumptions about block size, confidence parameters, and block generation intervals.